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Average hourly earnings came in a bit hotter than expected, suggesting that inflation may remain sticky in the near-term, Schwab's Martin said It looks like Fed expectations are being driven more by the rise in the unemployment rate and the weak household survey rather than rising wages, as the implied probability of a rate cut later this month has risen to 89%Two major indexes climbed, and the S&P 500 posted new record highs after the jobs report raised rate cut hopes Tech led, but most sectors fell
The SPX is up three straight weeksThis was a mixed report, but there are pockets of weakness, like the unemployment rate ticking up to 42%, said Collin Martin, director, fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research The headline nonfarm payrolls gain of 227,000 was slightly above expectations, but the markets may be focusing more on the household survey that showed a net loss of 355,000, its second straight month of large job losses
A bullish start to the day could push the SPX toward the 6,100 level, according to Kevin Green He also points to the financial sector as one to watch in the continuing bull runImportant information:This is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as specific investment advice Investors should make investment decisions based on their unique investment objectives and financial situation
While the information is believed to be accurate, it is not guaranteed and is subject to change without noticeInvestors should understand the risks involved in owning investments, including interest rate risk, credit risk and market risk The value of investments fluctuates and investors can lose some or all of their principalPast performance does not guarantee future results
Market indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly and are not meant to depict an actual investmentDiversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against lossSystematic investing does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss Investors should consider their willingness to keep investing when share prices are declining
Dividends may be increased, decreased or eliminated at any time without noticeSpecial risks are inherent in international investing, including those related to currency fluctuations and foreign political and economic eventsThe Fed jacked up interest rates 11 times in 2022 and 2023 Defying predictions, the economy kept growing despite much higher borrowing rates for consumers and businesses
But since early this year, the job market has been slowingTariff impact: The bark of tariff threats could ultimately be worse than the bite There are historic reasons to believe the biggest tariff threats won't be implemented in full In May 2019, in response to a surge in arrivals at the Mexican border, then-President Trump announced a 5% tariff to take place in 10 days, with the rate to escalate by 5% a month and reach 25% by October
However, the tariff threat was dropped just a week later and never took effect after Mexico agreed to measures to stem the tide of migration into the US Other examples during the first Trump administration include signing a trade deal with China and the USMCA Even if tariff threats become reality, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated 10% across-the-board tariffs on U
S imports, full-scale retaliation by Europe and China, as well as 10% on all trade between China and the EU would result in only a –01% reduction in global GDP growth for 2025Unemployment inched up to 4
2% from 41% previously, also close to expectations for unchanged Revisions to October brought growth that month up to just 36,000, not enough to salvage much strength in a period battered by hurricanes and worker strikesAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions
Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteedRecent Fed speakers, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, say the balance is about equal regarding the Fed's dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment None of the recent speakers were satisfied with the slow improvement in inflation, while many say jobs market cooling doesn't look too serious yet
Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly For more information on indexes, please see schwabcom/indexdefinitionsThe preliminary December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report rounds out the data week shortly after the open
A slight bump from November is expected, according to Briefingcom Analysts expect a headline of 735, up from 71
8 last month The year-ahead inflation number is also in focus after it fell to a nearly four-year low of 26% in NovemberWASHINGTON -- America's job market rebounded in November, adding 227,000 workers in a solid recovery from October, when the effects of strikes and hurricanes had sharply diminished employers' payrolls
Last month's hiring growth was up considerably from a meager gain of 36,000 jobs in October The unemployment rate ticked up to 42%Friday's report from the Labor Department provided the latest evidence that the U
S job market remains durable even though it has lost significant momentum from the 2021-2023 hiring boom, when the economy was rebounding from the pandemic recession The job market's gradual slowdown is, in part, a result of the high interest rates the Federal Reserve engineered in its drive to tame inflationThe Fed jacked up interest rates 11 times in 2022 and 2023
Defying predictions, the economy kept growing despite much higher borrowing rates for consumers and businesses But since early this year, the job market has been slowingAmericans as a whole have been enjoying unusual job security This week, the government reported that layoffs fell to just 1
6 million in October, below the lowest levels in the two decades that preceded the pandemic At the same time, the number of job openings rebounded from a 3 1/2 year low, a sign that businesses are still seeking workers even though hiring has cooledThe overall economy has remained resilient The much higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses that resulted from the Fed's rate hikes had been expected to tip the economy into a recession
Instead, the economy kept growing as households continued to spend and employers continued to hireThe economy grew at a 28% annual pace from July through September on healthy spending by consumers Annual economic growth has topped a decent 2% in eight of the past nine quarters
And inflation has dropped from a 91% peak in June 2022 to 26% last month Even so, Americans were deeply frustrated by still-high prices under the Biden-Harris administration, and partly for that reason chose last month to return Donald Trump to the White House
While comparatively few Americans are losing jobs, those who do are finding it harder to land a new one: The average unemployed American in October had been out of work for 229 weeks, the longest such stretch in 2 1/2 yearsThe progress against inflation and the slowdown in hiring, which eases pressure on companies to raise wages and prices, led the Fed to cut its key rate in September and again last month Another rate cut is expected to be announced when the Fed meets Dec
Defying predictions, the economy kept growing despite much higher borrowing rates for consumers and businesses. But since early this year, the job market has been slowing.Americans as a whole have been enjoying unusual job security. This week, the government reported that layoffs fell to just 1.6 million in October, below the lowest levels in the two decades that preceded the pandemic. At the same time, the number of job openings rebounded from a 3 1/2 year low, a sign that businesses are still seeking workers even though hiring has cooled.The overall economy has remained resilient. The much higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses that resulted from the Fed's rate hikes had been expected to tip the economy into a recession. Instead, the economy kept growing as households continued to spend and employers continued to hire.The economy grew at a 2.8% annual pace from July through September on healthy spending by consumers. Annual economic growth has topped a decent 2% in eight of the past nine quarters. And inflation has dropped from a 9.1% peak in June 2022 to 2.6% last month. Even so, Americans were deeply frustrated by still-high prices under the Biden-Harris administration, and partly for that reason chose last month to return Donald Trump to the White House.While comparatively few Americans are losing jobs, those who do are finding it harder to land a new one: The average unemployed American in October had been out of work for 22.9 weeks, the longest such stretch in 2 1/2 years.The progress against inflation and the slowdown in hiring, which eases pressure on companies to raise wages and prices, led the Fed to cut its key rate in September and again last month. Another rate cut is expected to be announced when the Fed meets Dec. 17-18.
