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Trump’s first trip abroad in February 2025 was to Israel Along with a congressional delegation, the president toured the areas struck by Hamas’s 7 October attacks and northern Gaza, an area devoid of civilians and still secured by the Israeli army Trump then gave a speech from the grounds of the US embassy in Jerusalem, in which he congratulated Israel for crushing Hamas in Gaza, lambasted his predecessor for calling for a ceasefire even though “the job was clearly not finished”, and called for a new approach towards a peaceful Middle East Trump then hinted at the need to work out a sustainable solution for Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza
Exactly how Trump will approach Venezuela remains to be seen On the one hand, in his first administration he led a maximum-pressure campaign on Venezuelan ruler Nicolás Maduro, which ramped up financial, oil, and individual sanctions against the government and key regime figures On the other hand, in recent months he has notably refrained from publicly promising a return to this approach On the campaign trail, his remarks on Venezuela largely focused on the flow of migrants and refugees from the country, with Trump claiming that the country’s crime rate has plummeted because so many Venezuelan “criminals” have come to the United States
This, combined with the fact that former Trump officials have said that he became frustrated with the Venezuelan opposition and with the failure of the pressure campaign to achieve results, could point to a second Trump administration adopting a more transactional approach to Caracas The Trump administration, after all, on multiple occasions engaged in backchannel talks with Maduro, and Trump himself expressed interest in meeting Maduro face to face back in 2020 Ultimately, while it is likely that Trump will adopt more confrontational rhetoric on Venezuela, he may see more value in containing the outward flow of migration and securing a US and Western footprint in Venezuela’s oil sector than in reverting to a maximum-pressure approachThe six scenarios reflect our understanding of the balance of power between the three tribes on the given issue as well as Trump’s occasionally consistent positions
They are, in our humble opinion, eminently plausible However, these scenarios are also very far from inevitable and solely designed to stimulate thought Rather than making predictions, they simply point out what could plausibly go wrong Our hope is that the possibilities will encourage Europeans to consider how they can approach the very difficult trade-offs that may lie ahead
Maybe they can even get people to stop looking at their phones so muchThese are difficult times The Russian threat has returned to Europe while a brutal war rages in the Middle East Populism is sweeping across the European continent, China seems increasingly scary, and nobody can stop looking at their phones
But in this maelstrom of woes, one prospect frightens European policymakers more than anything else: the return of Donald Trump to the US presidencyMiddle East and North AfricaThe Middle East and North Africa programme seeks to support a coherent European agenda in pursuit of regional interests The programme works with European and regional governments, local voices, and civil society to advance channels of dialogue as well as providing direct policy prescriptions to secure conflict de-escalation, regional stabilisation, and democratic transitionAmerican Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, which represents U
S refineries, also opposes potential tariffs, saying in a statement that “American refiners depend on crude oil from Canada and Mexico to produce the affordable, reliable fuels consumers count on every day”As the negotiations over these negotiations continued, backchannel envoys from the Kremlin arrived in Paris and Berlin The envoys indicated Putin’s openness to a summit
They hinted that the “official performing the duties of the CIA director”, Kash Patel, had told them Trump would demand an end to Russia’s military modernisation efforts with Iran as the price of the deal, but that this would be accompanied by economic incentives The envoys also expressed reservations about whether Trump could get his NATO allies or even the US Congress to go along with the deal They wanted to understand European attitudes towards the idea and towards sanctions relief in the event a negotiation beganRepublicans will strengthen ICE, increase penalties for illegal entry and overstaying Visas, and reinstate Remain in Mexico and other Policies that helped reduce Illegal Immigration by historic lows in President Trump's first term
We will also invoke the Alien Enemies Act to remove all known or suspected gang members, drug dealers, or cartel members from the United States, ending the scourge of Illegal Alien gang violence once and for all We will bring back the Travel Ban, and use Title 42 to end the child trafficking crisis by returning all trafficked children to their families in their Home Countries immediatelyTrump ratcheted up the rhetoric and announced that he would draw a red line in the South China Sea, though he didn’t say exactly what that meant The administration put US forces on high alert
It dispatched additional units of the US Pacific Fleet to the South China Sea to conduct joint patrols with ships from Australia, Japan, and the Philippines The US also increased air patrols over Second Thomas Shoal using F-35 fighters operating from its aircraft carriers Finally, Washington announced accelerated delivery of military equipment to Manila Trump, meanwhile, opened a channel to negotiate with Beijing, holding a two-hour phone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and announcing a face-to-face meeting in February
Nuclear energy policy has enjoyed bipartisan consensus in Washington over the last two administrations With the second Trump administration on the horizon, more bipartisan legislation in support of nuclear energy will likely be passed by Congress and signed into law by Trump, along the same lines as the legislation on nuclear energy that was a hallmark of Trump’s first administrationDustin Meyer, senior vice president of policy, economics and regulatory affairs at the American Petroleum Institute, called the new energy council “a good thing” for the US
The administration put US forces on high alert. It dispatched additional units of the US Pacific Fleet to the South China Sea to conduct joint patrols with ships from Australia, Japan, and the Philippines. The US also increased air patrols over Second Thomas Shoal using F-35 fighters operating from its aircraft carriers. Finally, Washington announced accelerated delivery of military equipment to Manila. Trump, meanwhile, opened a channel to negotiate with Beijing, holding a two-hour phone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and announcing a face-to-face meeting in February.Nuclear energy policy has enjoyed bipartisan consensus in Washington over the last two administrations. With the second Trump administration on the horizon, more bipartisan legislation in support of nuclear energy will likely be passed by Congress and signed into law by Trump, along the same lines as the legislation on nuclear energy that was a hallmark of Trump’s first administration.Dustin Meyer, senior vice president of policy, economics and regulatory affairs at the American Petroleum Institute, called the new energy council “a good thing” for the U.S. economy and trade. “Conceptually it makes a lot of sense to have as much coordination as possible,” he said.
